Case Studies

Since the early 2000 Newcastle Airport has emerged as one of the top six regional airports in UK in terms of international flights passengers. Although the airport has also extended its activities on domestic and charter flights, its international routes have been the most successful activities in recent years.

Based on a vector-autoregressive model, using six most relevant local and national factors, here we have produced a long term structured forecast of Newcastle airport's international passengers.

Crude oil price has been very volatile for nearly two years now. Indeed, the price movements heavily depends on supply of and demand for oil at world markets. Here we present a short term monthly forecast of Brent crude oil price over the period September 2008 and September 2009 with a two-month ahead forecast. A more detaled long term forecast of oil prices however require much greater in-depth analysis of the world demand and supply and other relevant political economy variables.

Source: bbc.co.uk

Gold price has been rising unprecendently since mid-2009, primarily due to its increased relative attractiveness over other alternative investments. Here we present a short term three-week ahead forecast of gold price over July-September 2009. Gold price since then has stabilised at around $1050-$1100, as has been predicted by our forecast.

Source: www.ftse.co.uk and www.bbc.co.uk